Fellow Afghanistan Free Ranger Dr. Keith Rose released a podcast the other day describing our current situation in Afghanistan as Groundhog Day. The people of Afghanistan are suffering with no end in sight, which is 180 degrees out from where I thought they would be when I flew into Kabul in 2005.
Using Keith’s analysis (a great podcast) as a point of departure, some dynamics with Afghanistan must be emphasised as our involvement continues. Fans of the international hit podcast The Lynch/Kenny Hour on All Marine Radio have heard Jeff, Mac, and me talk about our campaign in AF/PAK at length, using blunt terms that sound harsh to those unfamiliar with infantry guy talk.
As I pointed out last week, that podcast (and this blog) has many Afghan fans who know me. Afghans do not communicate with each other in blunt, no-BS terms, but I know they appreciate it when we do. Nothing will freak out Afghan project managers more than saying “inshallah” after discussing a scheduled payday.
Blunt fact number one is that our stated reason for remaining in Afghanistan is a blatant fabrication. The US Government has consistently maintained that we have to stay to make sure al-Qaeda does not come back, establish training camps, and conduct terrorist attacks on the international community from safe havens in Afghanistan.
They already have training camps in Afghanistan. We took out “Probably the largest” one in Kandahar province four years ago. The leader of al Qaeda, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, has had a haven in Pakistan since 2001, and has now (obviously) drone-proofed his lifestyle. Why would he leave Miranshah to live in Khost or Kandahar? The international airport in Peshawar is much nicer than any airport in Afghanistan; it is served by more international airlines (including Emirates, my favorite) and serves more destinations. Who in their right mind would fly Kam Air from Kabul to Dubai when you can fly Emirates from Peshawar and rack up the sky miles?
You are thinking that terrorists don’t use SkyMiles. Still, I must point out that the largest covert operation ever launched by CIA agents (not contractors, which is the norm) was compromised because the agents used their covert ID to fly into Italy, but had used their personal credit cards to book the flights and hotels. That’s the CIA, which is supposed to be high speed and low drag – the Taliban has to be worse on the operational security.
Blunt fact number two is that the American people, in general, and their military veterans specifically, believe we have done more than our fair share to give Afghanistan a chance, and they blew it, so the hell with them. Clearly, President Trump is looking for a way out and is willing to do almost anything (to include inviting former Gitmo detainees to Camp David for a round of ‘Let’s Make a Deal’) to end our commitments in the region. President Trump has said we are not getting any return on our considerable investments and asks why we should stay in Afghanistan or Pakistan?
The reasons to remain in the region are no doubt varied and complex. Still, the fact is that as long as we have thousands of servicemen, along with thousands more internationals in the country, we have to keep funding the government in Kabul. The next round of international funding is in 2020, and the funds are tied to anticorruption metrics that have not been met. If the international money pipeline closed suddenly, how do you think the tens of thousands of internationals would get out of the country as the government folds and the security services crumble?
That is a scenario you don’t have to worry about because the specter of Gandamak II will keep funding going indefinitely. Nothing terrifies Western government politicians more than the slaughter of their citizens, for which their accountability is unavoidable. The Taliban will continue to attack both military and civilian targets because they are terrorists, and that is what terrorists do. The Taliban no longer resembles the popular uprising of the religiously righteous in the face of anarchy. They are now narco-terrorists first, Islamic Jihadi’s second, and Afghan nationalists (maybe) third.
The Taliban were once competent enough to protect the people of Afghanistan from anarchic violence, but they are now the source of anarchic violence. Tyrannical rule is bad, but chaos is worse, and many Afghans have lived through both. The Afghan people will side with the side that delivers them from chaos, especially if that side is committed to keeping Pakistan the hell out of the country.
That is the other great unknown: what happens to the safe havens in Pakistan when the Taliban cut a deal with us? The Afghan Taliban claim to be their movement, but they are Pakistan’s puppets, just as sure as the government of Kabul is America’s. Pakistan exerts more direct control over the Taliban than America has ever been able to establish in Kabul. For the past 50 years the Taliban have been Pakistan’s bitch.
America no longer has the stomach for staying in Afghanistan, but that’s too bad; we’re not going anywhere for the reasons outlined above. So, how does this end? I have no idea, but I’m a fan of the Afghan people, and I believe they can, and will, sort things out given time and space. It is arguable if our continued meddling is helping, but that is irrelevant now. We aren’t leaving and are incapable of staying without meddling, so there it is.
Groundhog Day
