There is one point that I have hammered home on blogs and podcast interviews concerning Afghanistan: the next round of funding is a game changer. I thought we would see some serious budget slashing in 2020, but it has already started. Over the weekend, the State Department cut 100 million dollars designated for Afghanistan energy infrastructure projects. They also withheld another 60 million in payments to Afghanistan’s National Procurement Authority.
Aid is being withheld because of the endemic corruption found in Afghanistan (and every other country in the region). The sums involved look massive, but they aren’t. Keeping Afghanistan’s military and government solvent costs billions annually. Cutting programmed funds is long overdue, but I am guessing this is a test run to see what happens when the real funding crisis strikes next year.
My concern is that once the Afghan people understand we are doing the old cut and run, they may “complicate” our continued presence in the country.
Adding fuel to the fire is yet another ridiculous massacre of Afghan civilians by our armed forces. A drone strike in Nangarhar province killed 30 workers who were gathering pine nuts. This is not the first time we have slaughtered pine nut gatherers. For 18 years, we have been bombing Afghans who were going about their day because people watching drone feeds thought they were up to nefarious activities. We seem to be incapable of learning.
Just yesterday, 3 American soldiers were wounded in an insider attack on their convoy by a member of the Afghan Civil Order Police. This attack might have something to do with the loss of General Abdul Raziq last year. The Afghans know that Raziq was in that vulnerable situation only because General Miller invited him to the Kandahar Governor’s compound.
The guy who perpetrated this assault may well have been a Taliban plant, just like the one who nailed Raziq. Or he could be pissed about the death of Raziq and took it out on those he thought responsible. Who knows? But the timing of this attack is ominous to those like myself (and maybe it is just me) who are worried about pulling the cut and run while thousands of troops and tens of thousands of internationals are resident in the country.
The Afghan people are not stupid. When the news of the 160 million dollar cut broke, my Afghan friends in Kabul took to Facebook to lament an act they knew was coming. Here are some of their comments from my Facebook page:
Can’t really blame the US for doing this..
That peace deal is coming the conditions are gearing up for anti-USA climate, when the money stops then why are you in Afghanistan? You gotta pay to play otherwise the Afghans are switching their attitudes. Try governing Afghans who haven’t been paid.
But it’s so right! There is no transparency in AFG gov procurement and especially large projects. Nobody can audit NPA, u can’t complain against them and they can award projects to people of their choice.
It’s about time! Bad news for some people.
This is the tragedy; there are plenty of Afghans who want our help, who respect and are inspired by the idea of America, and who, if the Taliban return, are in serious trouble.
Afghanistan is a mess, but the only way for us to extract ourselves from that mess is slowly. The imperative now for NATO and the Afghanistan Security Forces is not to cede the initiative to the Taliban. The Taliban continue to attack; they are not going to stop applying pressure because it is working well for them.
We need to keep hammering away at them, too, but when we do that, we kill pine nut workers or smoke check wedding parties. The reason is a lack of human intelligence, local atmospherics, and American boots on the ground.
I do not see how we will square the Afghan circle. Still, I know contractors are one option with potential because contractors can loiter in the country longer than the military and can return to the same unit over and over to build cohesion and competence. There are thousands of American combat vets (and contractors) who would willingly return and stay to see the fight through. I’m one of them. I love Afghans (most of them) and the country, too, but this will not end well.
