FRI Guide to Dangerous Places: South Padre Island

South Texas has been under a heat dome that is now moving out of the way as hurricane Beryl bears down us. In anticipation of heavy weather the sharks started attacking beach goers yesterday biting four people in under two hours of coastal mayhem. The weather may or may not be affecting the local shark population who normally hang out in coastal waters without biting people. As I write the Trump Train is rolling through formally deep blue McAllen, Texas and the 2024 South Padre Island Tumptilla is gathering off Port Isabel but they may a few boats light due to a sudden interest in shark fishing. There is no detectable organic support for Joe Biden anywhere in Texas or any other state judging from media reporting.

This lady was bit in the thigh which resulted in a beach rescue with immediate first aid to control the bleeding applied by fellow beachgoers. It is always good to see normal people filling the breach during an emergency.

The progressive left cannot ignore the spectacle of our severely impaired President any longer nor can they handle the fact that their obvious propaganda and spiteful lawfare has made President Trump’s election inevitable. I’m guessing the academic/media disinformation duopoly will now start hammering away with man made climate change alarmism because they suspect President Trump is not a true believer. They also believe us normies learned nothing from SARS CoV-2 computer modeling because they learned nothing from that debacle. Climate models and COVID models share the distinction of being dead ass wrong because viruses and the earth’s climate are too complex to be modeled . Look below at the magic of scaling the NASA GISS data set to temperatures humans can detect to understand the depth of the climate deception.

But we have bigger problems here in tropical Texas, Hurricane Beryl is heading straight for us allowing the cable news stations to start explaining why hurricanes are now worse due to ‘Climate change™. ‘ Then we’ll get all sorts of expert opinion about why the storm missed because hurricanes have an annoying habit of not doing what the “experts” think they will do. And to add to our misery we have tar balls washing up on the beach at South Padre Island forcing beach strollers to watch their step in between scanning the waves for sharks.

Aggressive sharks aren’t the only problem on South Padre Island; Tar Balls are washing ashore!

The tar balls come from rents in the ocean floor that leak oil and have always infested our beaches. The Karankawas, a coastal indigenous tribe known for cannibalism and large physiques, used  tar balls to seal baskets and make weapons. The Karankawas disappeared from history in 1858 when Mexican rancher Juan Nepomuceno Cortina, a.k.a the Red Robber of the Rio Grande crossed the river to wiped the last of the tribe out. The Karankawa had unfortunately backed Mexico during the Texan/Mexican War so the Texans rounded them up and shipped them to Tamaulipas so they could live with their buddies.  But the Mexicans claimed they were marauders who plundered the countryside so they chased them to our side of the border before sending the Red Robber over to finish them off.

The one tribe the Spanish could never conquer were the Apache who were ejected from their ancestral tribal lands by the Comanches just before Anglo settlers arrived on the scene. These important historical facts, like the natural occurrence of tar balls, are almost unknown in today’s America where all past wrongs are always attributed to Anglo Americans.

A Trump Supporter counterprotesting among the astro turfed (most came in buses with professional signage) democrat crowd when President Trump came to McAllen to inspect the border in 2019. There was no evident organic support for FJB in 2020 and there is even less now but you see Trump flags everywhere when you drive the interstates.

Speaking of Anglo Americans did you know some of the ‘intelligence experts’ behind the Muh Russia and Hunter Biden laptop hoaxes have been hired Homeland Security to form an “Experts Group” for combating “misinformation” on the internet? In order to accommodate the misinformation experts the FBI expanded their “anti-government or anti-authority violent extremists” (AGAAVE) classification to include political and/or social agendas creating the AGAAVE (other) category. Indicators of being in the AGAAVE Other category are prior military service, actively attending religious services, or being in any way connected to the Trump MAGA movement. That covers about half the electorate but what does it mean?

I’m not sure, we can assume some of the weekly Trump Trains and Tumptilla’s include undercover federal agents and/or paid informants. But the Feds don’t need to be physically present to surveil potential domestic terrorists because they can hoover up everything in your phone, social media, and home computers with the new and improved PULSE Tactical Information Warfare Platform. The Pulse system was recently purchased by defense contractorTwo Six Technologies from the developers, IST Research, who emerged out of a secret DARPA project housed at the Taj.

The PULSE platform made its unclassified debut on 60 Minutes in 2015 with an interview of one of Taj vets who was marketing a system to monitor the “dark web” to catch human traffickers. That’s a ridiculous idea now, human traffickers are trafficking women and children across our southern border daily and nobody seems too upset about it. But when you’re selling concepts to the government 60 minutes is a good place to start.

Dr Dave Warner, Baba Ken Kraushaar and I on the night they arrived at the Taj in Jalalabad in early November, 2007. Dr. Dave and Ken are the original Synergy Strike Force team who would combine the Defense Intelligence Agencies Afghanistan Atmospherics program with DARPAs More Eyes program to create the forerunner of the PULSE platform running it out of the Taj
Dr Dave out and about with his Afghan crew in Dur Baba district near the Khyber Pass

 Two Six Technologies, then acquired the counter-disinformation company Thresher Ventures, for its main product the Media Manipulation Monitor (M3) which is based on the principle that advanced censorship regimes designed to control the flow of information convey a great deal about their governments and leaders. So does the flow of information for Trump Trains and Trumpilla’s which may explain the AGGAVE (other) category. When the government comes after you using lawfare the process is the punishment and not many Americans will be able to stand fast in the face of government intimidation.

Which brings us full circle back climate change because our Homeland Security ‘experts”are using their toys to wargame (in collaboration with social media companies) how to handle the droughts and power outages that will be caused by climate change. Those games involve censoring alternative views, manipulating the news, and (of course) lockdowns because the chaos of a changing climate is inevitable – unless we follow the example of Finland and Sweden and go back to nuclear power. But an energy independent America is not part of the big government progressive establishments playbook, only the bad Orange Man and the AGGAVE (others) think its a great idea.

I don’t think the elites media manipulation playbook will work for much longer but if you think they are going to re-think their determination to thwart the half of the electorate now deemed deplorables you have not been paying attention. The Biden regime will not go quietly into the night after an electoral landslide sends Trump back to DC. There is serious trouble brewing out their in the land of the free and one can only hope the will of the people is respected in this election and FJB sent back home wherever that is.

The Secret Gate: A True Story of Courage and Sacrifice During the Collapse of Afghanistan

The Secret Gate is one of the best books of the year which is easily confirmed by noting  its absence on any of the New York Times bestseller lists. I heard about this book from my father who was told about it by the wife of a friend, and she heard about it from one her grandchildren. How many word of mouth referrals do you think the current #1 in the NYT combined Print and E Book nonfiction list, Oath and Honor by Liz Cheney has generated this year? The question answers itself so let’s talk about the next book you’ll want to pick up knowing you won’t be able to put it down.  

The Secret Gate is about the rescue, at the last possible minute, of an Afghan woman and her son by a young American diplomat using a secret gate that the CIA opened to bring in their Afghans. I’ve worked at both the Baghdad and Kabul American embassies which allowed me to take the measure of young diplomats like Sam Aronson the hero in this story, and as a rule, I don’t like them. I found indecisive paralysis of Homeira Qaderi, a celebrated author,  academic, and woman rights activist distasteful. Her inability to make sound decisions in the face of existential danger is a character flaw in my book but her resolute determination to ignore reality in the face of intense international pressure from all the right people does contribute to the tension in the story.

The calm before the storm: this was the entrance to the Kabul American Embassy in the spring of 2005. Within a year these guys were behind 20 foot T walls .

And then there was the secret gate which I understand (this is not in the book) was guarded by Unit 02, the Nangarhar province CIA counter-terrorism pursuit team who arrested me once and were dicks about it. Every character in this book, from the “calm professional” ambassador to the lethargic DSS agents would normally irritate the shit out of me but I couldn’t put the book down and was sorry to reach the end. This story, intentional or not, captured the consequences when the media/government/academic approved narrative collides with cold, hard reality.

The tale opens on August 2nd, 2021, with a chapter about what Homeira and family were up to that day followed by a chapter about Sam’s day which started out rough because he was hung over. As the alternating chapters progress we learn more about the Qaderi family (Homeira’s father is awesome) and we learn about Sam. He, like most diplomats, comes from a wealthy family, and he traveled a bit in his youth which exposed him to the diplomatic service because his Dad worked for the NBA and diplomats love free NBA tickets. But there is an anomaly in young Sam’s background. At the age of 15 he got the EMT bug and by the end of High School he was a member of two different volunteer ambulance corps, racing a ½ mile to the closest station on foot from his High School when a call came in.

It is my lived experience that the best children of our wealthy elites will earn an EMT license and find their way into volunteer rescue squad work. I base this on my time with the Bethesda Chevy Chase Rescue Squad where a healthy percentage of the volunteers came from wealthy, and in some cases, powerful DC families. I started to like Sam when I read about his unique background.

Young Bethesda dandies dressed for a night of excitement in the big city. These guys have additional firefighter training so they can man Rescue 1 – which in my day was Rescue 19 – a squad truck with all the heavy rescue equipment that operates like a ladder company on big calls. Working Rescue 19 was the most fun a young man could have with his pants on in D.C..

The backstory covers Sam’s progression from Diplomatic Security Specialist to junior diplomat and way too much of that tale concerns COVID 19. We hear about Sam’s efforts to “sneak in” vaccines for the embassy staff in some African dump. It appears both Sam and the author, Mitchell Zuckoff, think it normal for senior bureaucrats to displace to their summer coastal bungalows to isolate after of positive COVID test. No doubt drawing daily per diem too and this is in 2021 long after it was obvious that COVID was little more than a bad cold bug and the vaccines worthless. But by the time Sam hits Kabul all the concerns about COVID became OBE (overcome by events in military parlance) and we (thankfully) never hear of it again.

Sam’s first decision of the crisis is to allow a woman who threw her child over the wall to be processed for a flight out. That was explicitly against that days iteration of evacuation guidance which Sam doesn’t know because, to be honest, he barley even knows where Afghanistan is on a map. But he catches on quick and within hours he’s ejecting desperate Afghans by the dozens.

The constant pressure of making literal life and death decisions about Afghans is hard on Sam as it well should be given his total ignorance of Afghanistan and her people. Sam starts to chain smoke, bumming cigarettes from interpreters (Terps) or the troops working near him, a move so typical it is a cliché.  As the story progresses Sam finds his own Terp named Asad who despite getting his parents and siblings into the evacuation que, will not leave Kabul without his sister and her family. He intends to help where he can until talking his sister into another attempt to get into the airport.

On the 25th of August, with just four days left in the evacuation Sam and Asad find themselves assigned to the “secret gate” where the CIA is bringing in busloads of their people who they take directly to the head of the line inside the airport. While Sam is bumming smokes from the CIA contractors manning the gate Asad gets the idea of bringing his sister and her family in from the gas station across the street from the secret entrance to the secret gate. Sam asks one of the CIA “shooters” for a little help, and he, surprisingly, is all in. He directs the pricks from Unit 02 to lay down some serious covering fire to distract the crowd while Asad sprints to the gas station, finds his sister and her family and they run back across the street through a gap in the wire to safety. It works like a charm and Sam then uses his junior diplomat status to walk the sister and her family directly into the airport terminal. Because (again based on my lived experience) Afghan interpreters are among the most awesome, loyal, brave, and trustworthy of temporary friends Asad stays on as his family flies out to help Sam get more deserving Afghans evacuated.

The word about Sam’s secret gate gets out and soon he is inundated with the names of Afghans connected to former friends and colleagues from around the world which he writes on his forearm with a sharpie as he and Asad start bringing the faithful into the wire. On the last day the gate will remain open Sam, as almost an afterthought, calls Homeira Qaderi and tells her that he can get her and her son out if she can get to the Panjshir Pumps gas station in 30 minutes. He stressed they can’t bring any luggage because of the recent suicide bombing, or any other family members. Homeira brings her son and her older brother along with a bag containing her laptop and a change of clothes. That was such a typical Afghan move that it forced a smile and I started to like Ms. Homeira who was making me miss hang around Afghans.

Rescue squad work is an excellent vehicle to teach the young about the importance of good decision making under stress as well as the consequences of poor decision making which is too often done under the influence of drink or drugs .

There’s lots more to the story and tons of tension and danger for the uninitiated, for the rest of us outgoing rifle fire and flash bangs are not considered that risky but what do I know? My perception of risk may be a bit dated. Sam Aronson, who directly violated State Department rules and regulations to get over a dozen under vetted Afghans evacuated comes home a hero which is exactly what he promised his wife he would not do. His wife who is also a junior diplomat cuts him some slack, but he his colleagues at State Department don’t because it is not an organization that tolerates masculine heroic virtues well. Sam quickly exits the State Department for greener pastures.

The problem with great stories like this is they make it easy to forget what we should never forget and that is the self-inflicted wound of our humiliating retreat from Afghanistan. On an early July 2021 edition of All Marine Radio, I offered to following expert analysis: “You cannot conduct a NEO from the airport in Kabul because there will be 200,000 Afghan civilians flooding the field in a panic to get out.” This was not dramatic or original insight, but common sense, any child living in Kabul could have told you that which was the point – our best and brightest knew nothing about what is happening outside the wire and that ignorance fed risk aversion and magical thinking about basic things like the difference between outgoing and incoming rifle fire.

Yet even when we flood Kabul with young diplomats trained to treat the official government narrative as legitimate reality at least one of them will recognize that he has arrived in Absurdistan and instinctively ignore what he is told in order do the right thing. For that Sam Aronson deserves a solid Bravo Zulu. And it turned out that the performance of Unit 02 at the secret gate was most honorable and they too deserve to be recognized for filling the breach at a desperate time with professional poise and determination. But the biggest thanks for this treat of a tale goes to the author Mitchell Zuckoff for finding a positive story of human courage and sacrifice buried inside our ignoble retreat from Central Asia.

Apocalypse Now: They are Coming for the Tiki Bars

Texas historian T.R. Ferhenbach wrote that the Texans considered the United States “A  country grown so great even fools cannot destroy it“. That was then (back when Texas agreed to join the United States on terms most favorable to Texas). This is now, and now has serious, unsolvable, structural, problems inside our social order that will manifest themselves in ways none of us can anticipate. It is possible the fools of today may well be able to destroy the country.

We are being asked two believe, as John Hinderaker wrote in this post, that:

“… Joe Biden, a mentally impaired senior citizen who didn’t campaign, who rarely left his basement, about whose candidacy virtually no one was enthusiastic outside his immediate family, smashed all records by getting 81 million Americans to vote for him, 12 million more than voted for Barack Obama in 2008? Actual live Americans, voting legally, and only once? While millions of those same voters didn’t vote down-ballot, so that, apart from the presidential race, it was a good year for Republicans? I don’t believe it”.

Add to this the continuing attempt to avoid any admission of guilt by our ruling classes for ignoring the obvious fact that COVID-19. However, lethal for 0.03% of the population, is no threat to the rest of us.  Our ruling class knows this, which is why they routinely flout the laws they shove down our throats. This is a worldwide phenomenon that is impossible for any rational human being alive today to explain. Why have we ruined so much of our capacity and wealth for a disease that is lethal to less than 1% of the population?  Reasons. I know why, but it is gratifying to find yourself being that guy in this picture.

Now, another shoe that may force me over the edge of reason and into armed, open revolt has dropped. They (the media in general, NYT specifically) have declared Tiki Bars are racist.

I have owned and run one bar in my lifetime: a Tiki Bar in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, the friendliest place in the world for people of all colors, genders, and creeds (except Afghans). It was a friendly place because everyone was armed or came with armed guards. Armed societies are polite societies. In Afghanistan, foreigners were allowed to consume alcohol but not Afghans, which is why we had a giant-screen TV room with WWE DVDs for the drivers and guards to use.

A proper Tiki Bar has no racial creed, stringent rules about firearms, or mandatory mask wearing.

According to this article in the New York Times:

[A] new generation of beverage-industry professionals are shining a light on the genre’s history of racial inequity and cultural appropriation, which has long been ignored because it clashes with the carefree aesthetic. . . A new wave of industry professionals is reimagining these delicious contributions to cocktail culture, looking to shed the appropriation and racism that have accompanied tiki since its inception. . .  A recent movement aims to shift from the word “tiki” to “tropical.”

I know what you are thinking. The NYT is starting to suffer from TWS (Trump Withdrawal Syndrome), so they cook up some snarky bullshit about hipster bars and then add that Richard Nixon liked Tiki Bars to dog whistle the proles. You think this is only about the people who run Tiki Bars, but you’re wrong. First, they came for the Tiki Bars and are now coming after coffee drinkers.

We just had an interesting year featuring a mass formation psychosis, a stolen election, and the complete collapse of confidence in the mainstream media. Now we move into the next phase of our destruction from within by identifying every touchstone of the America we love and labeling it racist. Woke ideology festers in ignorant minds, reducing their ability to understand reality. Rational people understand the graph below; woke people feel the graph threatens their physical safety and that they need protection from the information it depicts.

SCIENCE does not have political opinions, nor does it bend to the will of self-important, credentialed scumbags. The truth is the truth—the narrative is the narrative, and one is not related to the other. The truth is the virus will do what it was destined to do and go away when it wants to go away. Nothing we do impacts the virus.

As observable reality and the mainstream media narrative drift further apart, it will be interesting to see how the Normals of the fly-over muscular classes (VDH coined that term) react. Will the incubators of freedom in America (Tiki Bars) end up like my incubator of freedom did? Alone, abandoned, cold, and lonely, labeled a racist by the New York Times, who never even sent a reporter to look into the coolest Tiki Bar there ever was? Check that, Matt Rosenberg stayed at the Taj when he was with the Times, but he never wrote about it.

Does this look like the remnants of a racist institution to you? These photos are from Nathan Hodge, who visited the Taj in 2013, long after we had abandoned the place.

Tiki Bars represent freedom for all men because they are simple to erect, cost almost nothing, and are universally identifiable. According to the stickers and artwork plastered on the coolers, my Tiki Bar was not only an oasis of freedom but also represented Australia, the MIT FabLab, Burning Man, Synergy Strike Force, the Golden Triangle Rotary Club from La Jolla, and the United States Marine Corps.

The assault on Tiki Bars is not the only assault on common sense; there is also the mask problem. Not only are masks incapable of filtering out viruses, but they are likely contributing to the spread of the disease, as revealed by recent scientific studies. The results of a nationwide survey on the utility of masks were released yesterday, and they contain bad news, which means you’ll never read about it in the legacy media. It appears that wearing a mask increases the likelihood of infection.

When comparing states with mandates vs. those without, or periods of times within a state with a mandate vs. without, there is absolutely no evidence the mask mandate worked to slow the spread one iota. In total, in the states that had a mandate in effect, there were 9,605,256 confirmed COVID cases over 5,907 total days, an average of 27 cases per 100,000 per day. When states did not have a statewide order (which includes the states that never had them and the period of time masking states did not have the mandate in place) there were 5,781,716 cases over 5,772 total days, averaging 17 cases per 100,000 people per day.

The reverse correlation between periods of masking and non-masking is remarkable.

The American people are finally catching on. With proper medical treatment, a cold virus typically lasts. For only 7 days, left untreated, it can clear up within a week. It appears that, for most infected individuals, COVID-19 is acting similarly to other pathogenic coronaviruses. As democratic controlled states head towards another complete lockdown the proles are revolting. You can click here for an interactive map from Heritage.org, which shows 43 reported instances of local, state, and federal officials violating their coronavirus mandates, policies, or other restrictions.

Shenanigans like this are becoming depressingly common and they fool nobody.

We are now hearing about small business owners opening in defiance of ridiculous lockdown orders and being arrested for it.  In New York City, bar owner Daniel Presti hit a sheriff deputy with his car, breaking both of the deputy’s legs while resisting his second arrest for the crime of opening his business.  I support law enforcement 100%, but not the members of law enforcement who bully citizens while enforcing edicts from on high, while ignoring the laws of the land. The ” I was just following orders ” defense was used by Nazi’s to proclaim their innocence for crimes they supervised during WW II. That defense should stay in Nuremberg; it has no place in the culture of  American law enforcement.

When police start enforcing laws they know damn well are unenforceable, unconstitutional, arbitrary, and backed by woke ideology, are they still police? I’m not sure. I live in Texas, where the police are not prone to interfering with people going about their business in public. I know that the most law-abiding segment of society in the United States is concealed carry permit holders. It will take some severe abuse of our freedoms and liberties to get the gun-owning public enraged to the point of using them; I can’t see how that happens at any scale in our large country.

The bars, restaurants, and small businesses in my town are open, but they are struggling. The only arrest in McAllen related to COVID or BLM was a local man (that is code for Hispanic) who chased some BLM demonstrators (that is code for skinny white kids who do not live in the Valley) down Main Street with a chainsaw. He was screaming at them in Spanish, as you do in McAllen, but regrettably provided an English translation that included the dreaded N word. Usually, the chainsaw and N word combo would have caused a Twitter meltdown and maybe protests too. But this is South Texas, we don’t play those kinds of games down here.

The South Texas Chainsaw Man in action

Power doesn’t corrupt, it reveals the true character of those who hold it. The power lavished upon Joe Biden during his decades in the Senate has revealed his weak, flaccid, and corrupt character. The power currently concentrated in democratic governors and congressmen has shown them to be petty tyrants. Now, they have more power to accomplish their tasks. I’m not sure, but whatever they do, it will benefit them and their families more than it benefits you and yours.

We will never be able to vote these tyrants out of office because we no longer enjoy free, fair elections in the United States. The progressives, knowing they do not have to compete at the ballot box, may well try to disarm us to take our attention away from the plunging numbers on Wall Street. It will never happen; anyone who thinks it is even possible is beyond deluded. As long as we remain armed, the progressives will never be able to enforce too much of their anti-American, woke dogma on the rest of us. A man has to draw the line somewhere, and defending needless slander against Tiki Bars is as good a place to start as any.

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Apocalypse Not: 15 Inside the Hot Zone

For the first time in our history, medical treatment is a political issue. However, before I rant on that topic, I need to admit that my theory about SARS-CoV-2 has been proven wrong. My theory was based on the conviction that our government couldn’t react quickly and decisively to get ahead of a virus, regardless of who was in office. The virus became less lethal because Mother Nature forced its attachment points to return to their original configuration.

Ultimately, I could still be proven right, but I lost confidence in my theories because SARS-CoV-2 is no longer acting as I predicted it would. For three months, the pandemic conformed to my predictions almost to the letter, but it isn’t now, so I was wrong.

So what now? It’s time for the new set of facts, and here they are copied from a post I can’t find at the moment, so I can’t credit the author. It is now time to come to terms with the fact that;

1. I am probably going to get COVID-19 at some point,

2. I am almost certainly going to survive it, and

3. I might very well give it to someone else.

My new assumption is that this is a year-round virus that’s eventually going to infect 100 million people and kill roughly 1/4 of one percent of those infected. I’ve accepted those numbers. Unfortunately, millions of others have not. Many people have no sense of where this is headed, and I understand why. They’ve been betrayed by a hysterical media that insists on covering each new reported case as if it were the first case.

The McAllen/Edinburg area of South Texas has been experiencing an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, which has filled the hospitals, filled the morgues, and has resulted in the deployment of U.S. Army medical teams to help us cope. I now know several COVID-19 patients, all of whom were OCD about mask wearing and hand washing. As we can see from Holland’s example, masks are not the answer; avoiding the three C’s — confined spaces, crowded places, and close contact —seems to be much more critical. We have known that since the pandemic began, only Japan has incorporated the 3 C’s into its social policy.

You cannot see a virus with a microscope, you need an electron microscope but the point being made here is sort of true so……Truth over Facts!

The increase in cases comes from mass mobile testing at various sites around the Rio Grande Valley. The sudden increase in deaths is not a mystery because we now know morbid obesity is a real problem with COVID-19. McAllen and Edinburg combined to win the dubious distinction of the fattest metro area in the country in 2019. When it comes to comorbidity, we are number 1!

Added to the mix is the fact that this area is tightly controlled by democrats and the hospital systems rely on federal funding because they are Hispanic Serving Institutions (HSIs), which means they get access to cash that the rest of the country kicks in because of reasons.  Most doctors here follow the “Fauci Strategy,” which is “to keep early infected patients quarantined at home without treatment until they develop a shortness of breath and have to be admitted to a hospital. Then they would be given hydroxychloroquine. The Food and Drug Administration cluelessly agreed to this doctrine, and it stated in its hydroxychloroquine Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) that “hospitalized patients were likely to have a greater prospect of benefit (compared to ambulatory patients with mild illness).”

The results of the Fauci Strategy

The other problem with the South Texas outbreak is that we are told nothing about it. We hear how many test positive, and we get a daily COVID-19-related death count. There is no context, no explanations about why we are experiencing deaths at a much higher rate than the rest of the country. There is also zero coverage of the false positive problem and zero coverage of the inflated death count problem. But this is Texas, so we get news about the state going after unemployment fraud, rampant in the age of COVID-19.

Richard Cortez, an elected Hidalgo County judge who was (reportedly) a great CPA before he went on the bench, has issued back-to-back shelter-in-place orders that not one person in this county is following. The gyms remain open, as do the few restaurants that have not yet closed. My friends at the veteran-owned and operated 5×5 Brewery are watching four years of hard work. Every penny they’ve ever earned slips away because the town of Mission, TX, decided they were not an essential business.

We the people are no longer listening to the “experts” who have impinged on our lives and destroyed our economy. But ignoring them is all we can do, for those of us who have lost our businesses and livelihoods, there is always the ballot, but down here, if you’re not voting democrat, your vote counts for nothing.

Adding fuel to the fire is our controlled media, which labels the Sturgis motorcycle rally a “super spreader” event while ignoring the tens of thousands of BLM protesters who assemble nightly to burn, loot, rage, and attack police officers. Completing our new circle of misery, we have the Biden campaign. Joe Biden is obviously experiencing a severe mental decline, and that process appears to be accelerating rapidly.

I remain concerned that the controlled media narrative is so far removed from observable reality that it cannot be sustained. Yet here we are, August of 2020, and we are still in semi-lockdown over a disease that 99.9% of the population has no problem beating, especially if they are fortunate enough to have a doctor who prescribes HCL, zinc, Z-packs, and steroid inhalers.

This is worse than a bad Twilight Zone episode, but how does it end? The elites have been unmasked as petty partisan scum with inaccurate models. When questioned, they respond with petulant arguments from authority (a well-known logical fallacy). They, along with the media, have forfeited our trust in them, and at some point, there will be a reckoning. Inshallah, that reckoning will take the form of the rule of law being applied to elites in the same way it is being applied to small businessmen and women who are trying to make a living despite arbitrary, politically motivated tyranny from elected democrats across the land.

Apocalypse Not: Mask Off Mask On

A few weeks ago, a Black Lives Matter protest occurred in downtown McAllen, Texas. They did not get far before being confronted by a local man with a chainsaw. The man was screaming racial slurs, which he, uncharacteristically for these parts, helpfully translated into English for those who are a little rusty with the lingua franca.

The man was arrested after scattering a handful of over-socialized, under-educated, upper-middle-class white kids who were protesting in support of Black Lives Matter. Black lives are not a thing in South Texas, where blacks are less than 1% of the population.

The South Texas Chain Saw man in action

So, while the rest of you are dealing with riots and cancel culture, we are dealing with an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 that is threatening to overwhelm our hospitals. As is expected with democratically declared emergencies, nobody knows any SARS-CoV-2 patients, the local hospitals are still laying people off, and hemorrhaging money. Despite a total lack of any evidence other than news people droning on about increased numbers, Hidalgo County Judge Richard F. Cortez decreed that as of midnight tonight (19 June), masks must be worn in all businesses, at all times in the Rio Grande Valley even when you are working out in a gym.

I do not believe the new COVID numbers for the Rio Grande Valley, nor should you. Dellridge Health & Rehabilitation Center in Paramus, New Jersey, leads the nation in nursing home deaths according to the Federal Center for Medical and Medicaid Services (CMS). CMS reported that Dellridge had 753 deaths (in a 96-bed facility, mind you). The facility had reported 16 deaths of patients who tested positive for COVID-19.

We know that the media and the CDC have grossly inflated COVID-19 numbers, and it is not a mystery why. Any attempt to verify an increase in COVID numbers at local hospitals in McAllen is thwarted by armed guards and recalcitrant public affairs officers. There is no way to know what the hell is going on because trusting the government or media to tell us what is happening is for knaves or fools.

As is the case in every progressive district across the land, our judiciary is dangerously unaccountable and mostly a validation mechanism for the imposition of elite opinion. Elite opinion is Orange Man Bad, and they have been engaged in a systematic campaign to undermine the President since before he was elected.

The SARS-CoV-2 response is the most blatant example of expert class arrogance and media malfeasance in modern history. Quoting from this piece by Stacey Lennox:

Economies across the world were shut down based on a model that was blatant panic porn built on shoddy code. Even more maddening is the fact expert Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College had a history of getting almost every prediction he ever made completely wrong.

What is now at stake are the reputations of the scientific expert class, the Federal bureaucracy, the media, and virtually every big-money interest, from the pharmaceutical industry to Silicon Valley to Hollywood. If President Trump gets four more years, those special interests will suddenly not be so special.

Where was the first place you heard about hydroxychloroquine? President Trump’s COVID-19 update, where he mentioned it, stood by his belief, based on reporting by frontline physicians, that it worked. Just last week, the authors of a study published in the medical journal The Lancet, which stated that treating coronavirus with hydroxychloroquine could be fatal, retracted their findings.

Hydroxychloroquine costs $3.00 per treatment. Remdesivir, which doesn’t even work well, costs $1,400 per treatment, and it has a patent. Do you believe big Pharma was not behind the coordinated assault on the effectiveness of a drug that was proven to work on SARS-CoV-1, which has identical modes of attachment with SARS-CoV-2? Maybe it was all a coincidence, what do I know?

I know that the doctors in the Rio Grande Valley are using (but have run out of) Remdesivir. Our government designates hospitals in the RGV as “Hispanic Serving Institutions,” which entitles them to numerous federal grant funds. They are rule followers to the nth degree, and despite knowing that hydroxychloroquine and zinc will work, they are not about to do anything that might jeopardize grant monies. So they use Remdesivir, but have run out of the stuff and are now using Tylenol.

Welcome to the revolution. On one side are the American people who believe in our founding principles that guarantee every American has equal opportunity for success. We’ll call them the Ameri-cans. On the other side are Americans who believe in the French Revolution’s concept of equal outcomes for all. We’ll call them Ameri-can’ts. The Ameri-cant are rioting, claiming the country is inherently racist and all the ” Four Olds” must go. Have you ever heard of the four Olds before? Here’s a quick reminder:

The last crew to use the four olds killed millions of their citizens. In America, that is not going to happen because the one thing that democrat progressives cannot do is export their organic lunacy and blatant anarchy outside the urban centers they control. Unlike China (or any other country), we have the 2nd Amendment. You want to defund the police and place the responsibility for my security on me? I have no problem with that at all.  I am an American, and most of us are well-armed.

My prediction is that the President will win by a landslide this November. This country is still majority Ameri-can’s and we bend our knee to no man.  The remaining weeks running up to the election are going to be painful to watch, given the media’s continuing encouragement of rioting.

If my prediction is wrong, then we will experience what happens when you try to force “equality in outcomes” (Jacobinism to the historically literate) in a country founded on the principle of equal opportunity for all. A country where the citizens are armed and where trampling on individual liberties is not tolerated. I don’t think that will work, so I hope for the best while not fearing the worst.

Apocalypse Not: The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic is Over

As COVID Anxiety is turning into COVID rage, I am putting my streak of forecasting exactly how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will play out on the line with another bold prediction. As this comes to pass, remember you heard it here first (unless you listen to the No Agenda podcast). The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is over; the number of new infections may increase, but the number of those patients requiring ICU treatment or dying from the virus will continue to plummet. This is because the virus was manipulated for gain-of-function experiments, and once it got out of the lab and into nature, Mother Nature, recognizing a freak when she sees one, is forcing the virus back to its original state, which is an annoyance to humans, not a death-dealing pathogen.

I am making this prediction based on the work of Chris Howard, PhD (Biochemistry), and his wife, Lynn Howard, MD (Pathogenic Microbiology and Infectious Disease Specialist). The paragraphs below are my notes from their presentation, which can be found here. 

Coronaviruses are found in most animal species, including humans. There are over 100 different variants of coronaviruses. Historically, they are nothing more than an annoyance; they cause viral sinus infections or common colds. They have a distinct ability to penetrate epithelial cells, your first line of defense in the immune system, so when you find a virus that penetrates that epithelium and activates to enter a host cell, then you pretty much have an annoyance, and it’s usually a respiratory issue.

Coronaviruses have never been that virulent until the SARS 1 epidemic in 2001 -2002. We were told initially SARS 1 was found in bat caves, but if you look at the genetic sequence of SARS 1 RNA and compare it to SARS found in bats, there are many similarities; however, they are not identical. The assumption is that it made a zoonotic leap from the bat to the human and in doing so mutated.  That sounds reasonable until you look at the sequence themselves and realize what has changed is not your typical zoonosis mutation. If you dig deeper you’ll discover that many years ago (80’s and 90’s) we were manipulating viruses to learn more about them, and by manipulating them we made them more transmissible, more infectious, and more virulent. This supposedly teaches scientist and epidemiologist epidemiological behavior of potential pathogens and this type of study is called gain of function research.

When virus’s mutate and jump from to a different species or change hosts the main driver of those changes is evolutionary pressure to be able to bind better. Viruses themselves do not change; they are around for one thing; to make more viruses. When a virus finds a good mode of attachment, you will see less change in the virus. Both SARS 1 and the SARS 2 have identical modes of attachment from the ACE 2 inhibitor binding to S1. S1 splitting to the TMPRSS 2 binding site which opens the virus leading to exocytosis into the cell.  There’s no difference between SARS 1 and SARS 2 in that respect except for the internal dynamics of the virus’s which means it was man-made.

SARS COVID 2 (the etiological agent is for the disease state) is a chimera which by definition is made in a lab. Chimera’s take a target virus, incorporate other characteristics from other viruses to create something different.  A pertinent example of gain of function would be to use a COVID virus to create an HIV vaccine. HIV is a retrovirus and they don’t have that ability to penetrate epithelium. Vaccinating someone for HIV is not possible so scientists are trying to  find a way  to carry a vaccine (or antigen in this case) through the epithelium.

When the genome of SARS COVID 2 was uncoded there were four subsets that are identical to portions of the genome of HIV. That impossible in nature, it could not have happened to the COVID virus in a laboratory..

For viruses’ evolutionary pressure usually is based on the binding; it doesn’t change the internal RNA or DNA strands of viruses. With chimeras as they reproduce you get a shift back towards the original, natural type of virus. As a chimera goes through patient after patient and population after population mother nature recognizes it to be a freak. When you hear there are now 30 strains of CVOID 2 there are not really 30 different strains (they all have identical binding site) it’s same virus changing enough to revert back to the original wild virus which is, to humans, an annoyance, not a life or death threat.

Lynn and Chris Howard practice what is known as precision medicine. Precision medicine is a catch phrase for using your genetics and using epigenetics to take a very precise approach to optimizing your health. This is high end medicine targeting wealthy, high end clients like professional athletes and I imagine that is why their research is not receiving more attention from our know-nothing press.

If you look at how the SARS COVID 2 pandemic has progressed it is clear (to me at least) the Howard’s have articulated the Occam’s Razor solution. It is the simplest of competing theories and thus (most likely) the closest to the truth.  Mother Nature does not take kindly to the release of genetically manipulated organisms into the wild. She recognizes them and eliminates them with the same pitiless certainty she applies to all her creatures that are unable to respond to evolutionary pressures only she knows and understands.

With each passing day the evidence that the lockdowns were a massive waste of time and money accumulates. In South Texas where the wearing of face masks has been optional for a week I often am the only person in the local HEB not wearing a mask. Masks do not protect you from viruses nor do they prevent you from spreading a virus if you have one. Mask wearing is Kabuki theater just like TSA checkpoints in our airports. We have been victimized by politicians and medical “experts” who have been wrong about every aspect of this pandemic. When confronted with the conflicting facts from the ground they have doubled down with unreasonable, unconstitutional, ineffective actions that terrorize the uninformed and are destroying our economy. For this they will pay. Inshallah.

Apocalypse Not: Common Sense Prevails Over Low T Tyranny

The lockdown is, for all intents and purposes, over. Here in Texas, the gyms are finally open, as is the rest of the local economy, and mask-wearing is optional. In states with restrictive lockdowns, people are taking matters into their own hands and opening up their businesses despite orders to remain closed. Never has the difference between the political parties been so blatantly obvious, and Mother Nature is going to determine which party is using “science” in its COVID-19 response.

Suppose you believe that COVID-19 is a killer just waiting for us to drop our mask wearing and social distancing defenses so it can kill millions, hundreds of thousandstens of thousands, hundreds (depending on model used) then the republicans are doomed as they will pay the price for opening their states too soon.

If you believe COVID-19 is not a killer, that most people infected by the virus remain asymptomatic, and only the older, vulnerable portion of the population needs to be protected, then the democrats are doomed by retribution for the destruction of our economy by over-reacting to suspect models.

Despite their repressive lockdown policies, there are encouraging signs from the blue states.  In New Jersey, Atilis Gym opened yesterday in direct defiance of the governor’s orders. When the state police arrived, they informed dozens of protesters outside the gym that they had violated the governor’s COVID-19 orders and then bid them a good day. The crowd erupted in applause, precisely the kind of discretion we expect from our fellow citizens working in law enforcement.

There are also too many stories about intolerable abuses against law-abiding citizens being reported daily. An epidemic of poor judgment, based on questionable science, is sweeping across the Blue states.

In Salem, Oregon, Lindsey Graham, the owner of Glamour Salon, opened on May 5th because she needed to feed her kids, pay her bills, and save her business from bankruptcy. She was closed by the police and fined $14,000.  Two days later, Child Protective Services showed up, and I’ll let her describe the visit:

On May 7 child protective services showed up at my home. They questioned my husband and I. Questioned my child without me present. They searched our home,’ she said as tears welled up in her eyes during a press conference Friday.

‘And I never expected such a violent, aggressive, vindictive thing could ever be done to me or my family because I’m trying to earn a living. Because I’m trying to work,’ Graham added.

Graham is a mother to three kids: a six-year-old son, a three-year-old girl and an eight-week-old son.

Low-T Tyranny is defined as a government official knowingly lying to your face and daring you to call them on it. If you do, they immediately play their victim card, making you (not their bullshit answer) the problem. There is a lot of low-tax tyranny going around these days, even in once-reasonable states like Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania’s Secretary of Health, Rachel Levine, was on a phone-in press conference explaining why it moved her mother out of a nursing home the same day she ordered recovering COVID patients be sent from local hospitals to local nursing homes. During the press conference, a local newsman called Ms. Levine “sir” several times. That is understandable, I’ve listened to the tape and Ms. Levine (a transgendered woman) has retained her masculine voice. She answered the question, the reporter saying her mother asked to be moved because she’s a smart old gal who can figure stuff out. This implied that if your mother wasn’t smart enough to ask you to move her out of a nursing home that is about to receive convalescing COVID patients, then that’s on you, or her, or whatever.

Then Ms Levine had a meltdown over being addressed by the masculine pronoun as if one can intuit a declared gender over the telephone. Her outrage became the story, not her apparent hypocrisy in moving her mother out of harm’s way. That is Low T Tyranny, thrown right in your face, by a person who knows decent law-abiding citizens will give her a pass at risk of being branded a transphobe.

So what now? We let the virus play out, and one side or the other is going to be proved wrong. At this point, I must note that my theory about how the virus would go appears wrong. I thought the Wuhan Virus was as virulent as advertised and had already passed through much of the population. This theory was based on my conviction that our federal government cannot possibly react fast enough to contain a virulent virus. Now that there has been more extensive antibody testing, COVID-19 has a long way to go before we can reach anything close to herd immunity. COVID-19  did not tear through the land last December as I thought it had.

What does that mean? Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of the Stanford Medical School, who recently concluded a study of every major league baseball employee (only 0.7% positive for the COVID-19 antibody) said this:

“I think in the back of people’s heads there is this idea that somehow we can eradicate this disease if we just stay locked down. That is not possible. The serologic evidence, even the MLB study, suggest this. It suggests the epidemic is too widespread to eradicate. It spreads via asymptomatic contact. Like people who don’t have very many symptoms, even mild cold symptoms can spread the thing. They aren’t going to show up for testing. They aren’t going to show up at a hospital or a doctor.”

Last March, I wrote about Farr’s Law, named for British epidemiologist William Farr in 1840. He stated that epidemics develop and recede according to a bell-shaped curve with or without human intervention. It appears that COVID-19 is receding, and that once again, Farr’s Law has proved valid. The democrat politicians who are threatening to keep their state, city, or county locked down well into summer are in for a rude awakening. As each week passes with fewer cases identified and a declining death count, they will be forced to make decisions that the public has already made for them.

Apocalypse Not #10 Something is Happening Here

What it is ain’t exactly clear; and that’s an understatement—in the past, national emergencies brought the country together, at least for a while. From the reaction to 9/11 to the legions of people conducting water rescues after Houston flooded a few years back, we have always come together to face a threat. When the COVID-19 virus was discovered, it appeared to be an existential threat. Based on modeling by epidemiological experts, we initially expected millions, then hundreds of thousands, and subsequently tens of thousands of deaths, with the extreme lockdown measures included in the modeling.

The models were not only wrong but also far from accurate. Based on COVID-19 antibody testing in California, Boston, and Iceland, the infection fatality rate (IFR) is approximately 0.1 to 0.3 percent. The more testing we do, the lower the IFR drops as the number of positives (the denominator) increases.

Last week, a trio of Silicon Valley legends (T.J. Rodgers, Joe Malchow, and Yinon Weiss) conducted a regression study to determine if the rate of lockdown in each state had a statistically significant effect on the number of reported cases. They found the correlation coefficient on early vs. late (or no) lockdowns was 5.5%. That number is so low that there is no correlation. The lockdowns did not affect the outcome in each of the 50 states.

One of the most eminent Professors of Epidemiology, Medicine, and Population Health, John P.A. Ioannidis, MD, DSc, has again warned that we are making high-stakes decisions without reliable data. Yet the narrative marches on, with the media and authorities using the case fatality rate (CFR), not the infection fatality rate (IFR), to justify their caution.

So what now?

Unfortunately, there is no ‘what now’; instead, the population has a deeper, polarizing division. Most of the population would agree with my timeline and assessment. But it is also apparent that a large percentage of Americans believe there is a deadly virus out there that will scythe through the population if we lift the various lockdowns affecting 43 of the 50 states.

There is no way forward if we cannot agree on or define the threat as a nation. The problem now is that limiting the threat threatens the reputations of the leading scientists running our public health system, powerful academic institutions such as Johns Hopkins and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, influential philanthropists like Bill Gates, and the legacy media.

According to physicians on the front line, the failure to adapt to the virus as it has presented itself is costing lives. John Hinderocker from the Powerline blog explains the details in this post. He quotes from Dr. Paul Marik, Chief of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine at Eastern Virginia Medical School, Critical Care COVID Management Protocol.

It is our collective opinion that the historically high levels of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 is due to a single factor: the widespread and inappropriate reluctance amongst intensivists to employ anti-inflammatory and anticoagulant treatments, including corticosteroid therapy early in the course of a patient’s hospitalization. It is essential to recognize that it is not the virus that is killing the patient, rather it is the patient’s overactive immune system. The flames of the “cytokine fire” are out of control and need to be extinguished. Providing supportive care (with ventilators that themselves stoke the fire) and waiting for the cytokine fire to burn itself out simply does not work… this approach has FAILED and has led to the death of tens of thousands of patients.

As Powerline further notes:

The systematic failure of critical care systems to adopt corticosteroid therapy resulted from the published recommendations against corticosteroids use by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the American Thoracic Society (ATS) amongst others.

The most effective treatment for COVID-19 is a combination of very inexpensive, readily available drugs. This will prove catastrophic for the reputations of those who continue to insist that mass testing and a proven vaccine, or an effective drug targeting the virus, such as remdesivir, the antiviral medicine from Gilead Sciences, are required before lockdowns can end.

The lockdowns are going to end soon. Shelter-in-place orders have proved an incredibly destructive policy, and the harm has not been distributed evenly across the United States. Some people are suffering much, much more than others.

Yet the lockdown continues here in Texas with the Kabuki theater’s partial openings. Restaurants cannot turn a profit when they are forced to run at 50% capacity. I’m not sure why you would open movie theaters but keep gyms closed, given the comorbidity associated with the lifestyles of the large and lethargic.

Public health officials should encourage the population to get outdoors and enjoy fresh air and sunshine to bolster their immune systems through exercise. However, they are pretending they can calibrate the economy to limit exposure to a nasty bug, although science, in the form of epidemiological studies and regression analysis, would tell you these steps are not helping—they are hurting.

As Texas and other states emerge from lockdown, there will likely be an increase in positive test results, as more tests are conducted. What we will not see is a giant wave of critically ill patients needing ICU beds. That hasn’t happened yet and won’t happen now or in the future.  When what is not going to happen, happens, what are the elites, the press, and all the politicians who have been crying wolf for months now going to do? Who knows? Owning up and admitting their mistakes is not part of their DNA, so we can rule out being honest.

The great and powerful Texas historian T.R. Fehrenbach once wrote that: America is a land so great that even fools cannot destroy it. We are currently testing his thesis. Let’s hope he was right.

Apocalypse Not #9 What Happened to the Models?

It is now obvious that the modeling driving the COVID-19 response was wrong. They caused the nation to overreact, and now that we realize COVID-19 is not the threat we were told it was, what do we do? What the Trump Administration just did, right in front of you, was disappear the models, switch data sets, and start talking recovery. It was awesome to watch, made more so by the fact that not many people realized what they were seeing.

During Thursday’s Coronavirus Task Force press conference, all mentions of modeling were removed, replaced with slides from the US Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network.

The death rate from this virus is expected to be lower than the number of flu deaths from the 2018-2019 flu season. Through antibody testing, we are learning that the China Flu bug arrived earlier than thought and has already passed through a good percentage of the population.

This is fantastic news, but we’re not celebrating, relaxing the lockdown, or restarting the economy.

In Texas, our governor appointed a commission to examine how to reopen the state. When he announced the commission members, he included Ross Perot, who died a year ago, which is suspicious. We are weeks away from spring football practice, and instead of acting on facts, the governor is appointing deceased individuals to commissions. That is not very Texan-like, and I wish we had a better leader like one of the seven governors who were not bullied into economic suicide by hysterical progressive elites.

On the day Governor Abbot announced his strike force, Governor Inslee of Washington State launched a tweetstorm of unhinged ad hominem attacks on the President. He is convinced that Wuhan will mow down millions if we dare break the protocols established to flatten a curve that never came, predicted by models that were never accurate.

The insistence of progressive politicians in believing the obviously flawed models of elite academics is going to, without question, kill Americans. And we don’t need models to know how many. Citizen Journalist Betsy McCaughey points out:

No model or guesswork is required to foresee the deadly impact. Job losses cause extreme suffering. Every 1% hike in the unemployment rate will likely produce a 3.3% increase in drug overdose deaths and a 0.99% increase in suicides according to data provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the medical journal Lancet. These are facts based on experience, not models. If unemployment hits 32%, some 77,000 Americans are likely to die from suicide and drug overdoses as a result of layoffs. Scientists call these fatalities deaths of despair.

The impact of layoffs goes beyond suicide, drug overdosing, and drinking. Researcher Michael French from the University of Miami points out that the death rate for an unemployed person is 63% higher than for someone with a job. The unwarranted and unnecessary lockdowns come with a price tag larger than the COVID-19 threat.

Why can’t our leaders see this? Dozens of pieces are coming out daily pointing out the same thing, yet the narrative continues as if the pandemic is performing as predicted. 

After the terrorist attacks on 9/11, our country went through a spasm of federal government action to “make us safe”. What came of that was the TSA. The TSA is in the business of ‘Security Theater’; it fails security tests over 95% of the time. They routinely allow weapons and ammunition to be unintentionally carried onto aircraft, something I’ve done myself. No security professional mistakes the TSA as anything other than Kabuki Theater. If you want safe air travel screening, you need to do it like the Israelis do, but we won’t do that because of Muh Racism.

The Kabuki theater will continue to require social distancing and mask-wearing. As Dr John Lee, joining hundreds of other reality-based front-line physicians like Keith Rose and Jonathan Greach, points out, there is no direct evidence that the lockdowns are working. The argument that social distancing and mask wearing slow the spread of the Wuhan virus makes sense, but then again, so does the argument for developing herd immunity.

It is impossible to evaluate scientific data when the credentialed experts working with the data disagree on its meaning. Occam’s Razor is a solid approach, and it was the reason I said at the start of the Pandemic that we were too slow and the bug had long ago escaped into the population. I had no way of knowing it would prove mostly benign, but it did, and here we are.

The truth about the COVID-19 threat is evident. Progressive Democrats’ reluctance to accept that their academics, experts, and pundits were wrong is fascinating to watch, but this isn’t funny. Lives are now in jeopardy due to continued forced unemployment and forced asset loss on the part of local and state governments. If this does not end quickly, we will lose more than the 2020 NCAA football season.

Apocalypse Not: South Texas Lockdown

The Rio Grande Valley consists of four counties: Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr, and Willacy. The population is almost 90% Hispanic, and most people born and raised here, including whites, speak fluent Spanish. Despite the prevalence of Spanish speakers, it’s still an unmistakably American place. The infrastructure is new as the population has grown significantly over the last twenty years. The VA system here is excellent, as military service has long been popular among South Texans.

The migration pressure on the border comes from Central Americans who muster at collection points on this side of the border for speedy processing. Once processed and released, they are taken to the Catholic Relief shelter, where they receive food and a bus ticket to the interior, and then dropped off at the Greyhound station. Mexican citizens can cross the border and stay in the valley as long as they wish, but they must obtain a visa to travel inland. Many local economies in cities like McAllen rely heavily on Mexican tourism, particularly during Christmas and Easter.

The McAllen/Edinburg area has a serious public health problem; we are (according to a recent Grubhub ranking) the fattest metro area in the United States.  Morbid obesity leads to type II diabetes and hypertension, and all three are the principal comorbidity factors contributing to fatal outcomes from COVID-19.

The counties have all issued shelter-in-place orders, and masks must be worn in public except when exercising. Cameron County has issued the most stringent mandates, including a prohibition on more than two people in a vehicle, which will pose a challenge for lawn maintenance crews. Children under age 14 have been confined to quarters. These measures are the wrong ones to take if we are concerned about the health and welfare of our fellow citizens.

One of the known characteristics of COVID-19 is that hypertension, diabetes, and being overweight dramatically increase hospitalization and fatality rates. It seems to me the perfect vehicle for public health officials to attack the epidemic of obesity in the population. If there was ever a time to start messaging about the necessity of a balanced diet combined with regular outdoor exercise, that time is now.

Instead, local officials have done the exact opposite. The regional parks and playgrounds remained open when schools and non-essential businesses closed. They were not crowded, and there were no issues with social distancing. Still, you could see groups of six to eight cross-fit enthusiasts working out together, families using the picnic benches, and others running or using the exercise stations.

I would think the city leader would be encouraging people to get out of the house and into the many city parks to let their kids burn up some energy. Instead, the city placed barricades around all jungle gyms, removed every picnic bench, closed all the park parking lots, and made it clear it doesn’t want people exercising in the parks.

Remember, the purpose of flattening the curve was not to shelter in place until the bug was gone; the assumption that we will all eventually be exposed remains in place. If we will all eventually get the bug, shouldn’t we strengthen our immune systems now that we have all this time on our hands? Getting people, especially children, outside and active helps boost their immune systems. Being immobile and sedentary indoors, passively watching television while consuming highly processed food, can decrease the immune system.

The Land Shark is a lockdown essential. It’s flat here, the streets are empty, and this old-school custom bike can fly. The surprise of the COVID quarantine has been being able to get outside to exercise instead of using an indoor gym. I had forgotten how good it felt to train outside—and it’s good for the immune system, too.

The local hospitals are empty, indicating that the curve has flattened, which was the purpose of social distancing and mask-wearing. Now that we have accomplished the goal of the shutdown, why are we continuing the shutdown?

The reason to open the economy is that it will save more lives than it will cost. There is little question that the lives lost to the economic catastrophe following an extended shutdown and collapse of the economy would dwarf the number of lives lost from  COVID-19.

The alternative to relaxing the quarantine and allowing the virus to run its course is to remain locked down until a vaccine or cure is found. This is why prominent health policy experts like Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel are discussing an 18-month lockdown. That is flat out insane. How can Americans look themselves in the mirror and call themselves the land of the free without NCAA football this fall? The question answers itself.

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