A few days ago I was invited back to The Alyona Show to talk about tribal militias. You can see Alyona now during these interviews, but I still ended up looking all over the place like Stevie Wonder. No idea why I do that… it sure is distracting. Alyona and I ended up talking about two different aspects of the militia issue. She was more concerned about the abuse angle – that we may be creating armed groups who abuse the population and ignore the rule of law. I remain more concerned about the economy of force angle – using tribal militias to control key areas, thus sparing our limited manpower for heavily populated areas currently infested with Taliban.
It is hard to get into sync when doing such a short interview but I was able to address a common misconception and that is the use of tribal militia forces to spearhead Special Forces raids. I am no fan of some of the Special Forces work in Afghanistan because there is no need to hit local compounds with the full SF direct action package which includes the varsity Afghan Commandos (who are very very good) a half dozen or so helicopters, dedicated UAV platforms, dedicated attack jets and AC 130 gunships, etc… to pick up a few suspected Taliban. That is a ton of time and money to spend on trying to get villains who may or may not be in the targeted compound. It is easier and cheaper to drive up in the middle of the day with some ANA troops, knock on the door and ask your target if he wants to come now or does he want to fight? These guys are inside compounds with 9 foot high walls, it’s not like they can run away – there are four options when faced with deadly force confrontation; fight, flight, posture or submission. When trapped inside a compound those options are reduced to fight or submission. If the target wants to fight you can invite him to be a true Pashtun man of honor and let the women and kids out of the compound before you come in to get him. You can also move the neighbors out of their compounds, and then try to talk them out or bomb them or go in after them… whatever option you want. It is much easier and safer for everyone (except the target because this is only going to end one way for them) if you would just think things through and take your time.
The video is pasted in below – and it turns out this conversation was a forecast of things to come. Watch the video below and then I will attempt to explain why this arm the tribal militia story is even more confusing and complex then most of you ever thought it could be.
Last night I received a call from my good friend Chief Ajmal Khan Azizi who had just escaped a serious Taliban ambush. As I reported in this post last February Chief Azizi had returned to his tribal homelands to coordinate with The Boss on reconstruction projects and to renew his pleading with the American army stationed in his area for support in battling the Taliban. Ajmal is a tribal chief as well as a Canadian citizen. He has gone hat in hand to London, Kabul and Washington DC to raise support for his beleaguered tribal area, and although he finds a sympathetic audience wherever he goes, what he never gets is a firm commitment to help. I am not the only one taking up his cause, The Boss has been working with the US Embassy in Kabul and Steven Pressfield published a multi part interview with Ajmal this year too.
Last night as Ajmal was moving through the town of Ali Khel near the Pakistan border, he was ambushed by a platoon of Pakistani Taliban. They recognized them as Pakistani’s due to their accents when the attackers shouted back and forth to each other during the 45 minute fight. As these things normally are the ambush was initiated with an IED explosion followed by small arms fire (SAF) and RPG’s. I talked with the chief of the Zazi Valley police, Amir Mohammad who said the Paki’s shot volley after volley from at least 6 RPG’s and they threw over 14 grenades during the fight. Ajmal called on the near by Afghan Border Police for help and they declined to intervene, so the ambush was not broken until Zazi Valley tribal police reinforcements showed up and drove the attackers back towards Pakistan. Ajmal lost a truck and had three men wounded. One of them was seriously wounded and was being transported to Kabul (a five hour drive) in order to get him proper medical care.
For those of you who have labored in the profession of arms you can recognize just how much ammunition was expended by the Taliban. Forty five minutes of constant RPK fire from multiple machineguns takes thousands of rounds. Firing multiple rockets from up to six RPG launchers is also an extravagant use of ammo given the current rates of consumption by the Taliban. Somebody really wants to see a tribal leader who is on our side in this fight in the critical border lands of the Parrot’s Beak dead, and they are spending a kings ransom in the attempt.
Ajmal has a problem as the chief of an eleven tribe federation and that problem is he’s not on good terms with the Karzai government in Kabul. The reason he is on the outs is his insistence that officials appointed by the Kabul government not abuse their powers or positions at the expense of the the local people living in the Zazi valley. He insists they not steal land, not steal aid money, not encourage the narcotics trade, not sell weapons and ammunition across the border to Pakistani Taliban. Not all the Kabul appointees were able to abide by these simple rules so they were run out of the valley. The Kabul officials went to the US army to complain and, as is typical in most of their country, they were not only believed by the Americans, but supported. The reason for this is the current ISAF mission statement includes “support GIRoA” (Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.) How many of you have read over and over and over that one of the biggest obstacles to progress is the thoroughly corrupt and abusive central government? Here is a recent story on the topic which is one of dozens published weekly.
When Alyona asked me during her show about Tribal Militias my first thoughts are about men I know like Ajmal who are walking the fine line between a central government who abuses their positions of trust (I am referring to Kabul not Washington D.C.) and the American led ISAF who one would expect to offer their enthusiastic support. Ajmal and his association of border tribes are the perfect economy of force option. They want to drive the Taliban and assorted Pakistani enablers out of their valley. They have no desire to operate outside of their hereditary lands and are of the people thus incapable of predatory behavior as their power to police comes from the tribal elders. The problem is there are not too many cut and dried situations like this in the country. This is a viable solution only among the tribes bordering Pakistan in parts of the east and southeast and in remote interior sections of the country.
Attempts by ISAF to use the tribes as militia in other portions of the country have resulted in debacles. This article from Time is a good example and no doubt the kind of tribal militia related problems which has caught the attention of The Alyona Show and every other person paying attention to this conflict. This is a complex place requiring solutions tailored to the area, people and situation on the ground at the district level. Designing a campaign to do that requires decentralized decision making on the ground with small units of infantry who are empowered to provide support as they see fit in their area of operations. The advantage of operating this way is the ability of these infantry units to build good governance from the bottom up because they are in the position to know what is transpiring, 24/7, in the district administrative centers, which would serve as the area security forces TOC (tactical operations center) too.
Afghanistan is going to hell in a hand basket. As I am sitting here these messages from multiple watch officers just popped up on the Afghanistan security chat room which was established some months back:
22 MAY 10 2012L: COMPLEX ATTACK: KAF: KANDAHAR PROVINCE; KAF subjected to 9 rounds of indirect fire accompanied by SAF. Will update as information becomes available.
2020L Our guys in KAF are reporting 3 rounds…1 near the hotel, 2 near the boardwalk…..no info on the reported other 6 rkts or the SA.
2027L Reports from RED HORSE that KAF north side is under ground attack, further report that one container (possibly but not confirmed) ECOLOG was hit by a rocket. All this is too preliminary to confirm at this time.
2034L I have unarmed guards on north side of KAF 100 meters from inside fence line reporting no small arms fire heard in their vicinity, but siren GROUND ATTACK is broad-casted. Number of rockets is between 4-8. Situation still developing.
SAF is the acronym for small arms fire which would indicate a ground attack. Maneuvering a Taliban assault team into small arms range of the gigantic ISAF Kandahar Air Field (KAF) is a tactical feat I do not believe the Taliban could plan and execute. As the watch officers above noted it cannot be confirmed that a ground assault is taking place. The ground attack earlier this week targeting the Bagram Airbase outside of Kabul was a joke – typical amateur hour execution of a poor plan which had zero chance of success. This is a serious attack. Normally the Taliban can’t hit anything with rockets but they are winging them inside the fence line now.
We announced to all who would listen that we were going to sort out Kandahar with a major military operation this summer. Now we have called it off and the locals in the city are questioning our resolve. The Taliban are testing our resolve as I write this post. This is not good, especially given the dog and pony show of President Karzai’s recent trip to Washington. It is going to be a very long summer – I hope we get our bearings soon or more and more of our citizens are going to start to ask why the hell we are here.